Moore’s Law is an empirical rule that “the number of transistors doubles roughly every two years,” and this prediction has guided the semiconductor industry for more than half a century.

As transistors have been scaled down, computers have become faster, smaller, and cheaper, giving rise to new industries such as smartphones, the internet, and AI.

 

Today, however, this progress in scaling is approaching its physical limits.

Transistor sizes have already reached the range of a few nanometers, and problems such as electron leakage, heat generation, and soaring manufacturing costs have become apparent.

It is said that the era of improving performance “just by making things smaller,” as we have done until now, is coming to an end.

 

So, will the evolution of semiconductors stop here?

The answer is No.

Researchers and companies around the world are pursuing research into new materials, new structures, and new principles of computation in order to go beyond the limits of scaling.

Next-generation semiconductor technologies are already in motion, including neuromorphic semiconductors that mimic the workings of the brain, photonics that uses light to transmit information, and quantum computers that harness quantum mechanics.

Going forward, semiconductors will evolve not through a simple race to scale down, but through innovation across structures, materials, and entire systems.

 

In other words, the future of semiconductors is shifting from “technology that makes things smaller” to “technology that creates new forms of computation.”

In this chapter, starting from the limits of Moore’s Law, we will survey the frontiers of semiconductor research, including next-generation transistor structures, new-material devices, neuromorphic computing, optical computing, and quantum computers. Let us look at how the computers of the future will evolve, and what impact these technologies will have on society.

 

Column Supervisor: Koji Kakumoto (President, OTIS Co., Ltd.)

After studying abroad and working in planning and development at a trading company, he joined OTIS Co., Ltd. in 2011. While primarily working in the Corporate Planning Department, he has also served concurrently in manufacturing and technical divisions, and since 2018 has served as President, working to drive business growth and strengthen the organization.

 

This article is a general technical explanation intended for educational purposes and does not refer to any specific company, product, or technology.