Over the past 70 years, the semiconductor industry has achieved remarkable progress. Today, however, it is facing a wall in that growth.

Technology, the environment, talent, geopolitics, and ethics — how the industry overcomes these challenges will determine the shape of the next 50 years.

Moore’s Law — the rule of thumb that integration density doubles roughly every two years, which has driven semiconductor progress for decades — is already approaching its limits.

・Below the 2nm node, quantum tunneling effects cause electrons to leak.

・Forming circuit patterns has become extremely difficult, driving manufacturing costs sharply higher.

・A single EUV lithography machine now costs on the order of tens of billions of yen.

Going forward, the industry is shifting from simply “making things smaller” toward “changing the structure” and “winning through functionality.”

Emerging directions:

・3D stacking (TSV, chiplets)

・GAA transistors and nanosheet structures

・AI-driven circuit optimization and design

Silicon’s performance is approaching its limits, making the transition to new materials an urgent priority.

・SiC (silicon carbide): High voltage tolerance and high-temperature performance (EVs, power semiconductors)

・GaN (gallium nitride): High-frequency characteristics (5G, chargers)

・Ga₂O₃ (gallium oxide): A candidate for next-generation power devices

・Graphene, carbon nanotubes, and 2D materials: Gaining attention as post-silicon materials

Because manufacturing conditions and equipment differ for each material, the industry is entering an era that demands close coordination between equipment development and materials development.

Semiconductor manufacturing is extremely energy-intensive.

・CO₂ emissions during production, and the heavy use of ultrapure water and chemicals

・The need to comply with regulations on PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances)

・Recycling challenges at the end of a product’s life (recovery of rare metals and noble gases)

Response directions:

・Carbon-neutral factories (renewable energy combined with emissions reductions)

・Development of PFAS-free materials and cleaning technologies

・Closed-loop production (wastewater reuse and material recycling)

Green semiconductor manufacturing is set to become a key element of future competitiveness.

There is a global shortage of talent capable of driving research, design, and manufacturing in advanced semiconductors.

・An accelerating decline in students pursuing science and engineering, and in interest in manufacturing careers

・A need for combined expertise spanning AI, quantum technology, and nanotechnology

・A shortage of “integrator” talent who can connect the factory floor, research, and management

Response directions:

・Stronger collaboration between education and industry (industry-academia integration)

・Cultivating talent who can work across AI, physics, and business management

・Digitizing the transfer of skills (knowledge sharing and digital-transformation-based training)

The semiconductor industry is not only a collection of technologies — it is also a collective body of human knowledge.

Semiconductors have become a strategic national resource and a major point of global contention.

・Export restrictions stemming from U.S.–China tensions, particularly around advanced manufacturing equipment and AI chips

・Risk surrounding the Taiwan Strait, given that Taiwan accounts for roughly 70% of global supply

・Fragmentation of supply networks, prompting a rebuilding of supply chains

Response directions:

・Diversifying production sites across Japan, the United States, and the EU

・Increasing domestic sourcing of materials and equipment

・Strengthening economic security through subsidies and technology protection policies

・The cost of building a leading-edge fab now exceeds one trillion yen.

・The price and maintenance costs of EUV lithography equipment are enormous.

・Gaps have emerged in how R&D responsibilities are divided between design and manufacturing.

No single company can shoulder these costs alone. As a result, joint development efforts, national support programs, and corporate alliances are increasingly common.

Examples include Rapidus (Japan), IMEC (Belgium), and the TSMC–Sony partnership in Kumamoto.

As AI and semiconductors increasingly take over human decision-making, an ethical perspective on how this technology is used has become essential.

・Risks around surveillance societies and the misuse of personal data

・The blurring line between military and civilian applications

・The risk of “cognitive decline” resulting from over-dependence on technology

Technology is never neutral. The central question is whether it is technology built to make people happy.

The future of semiconductor development is moving toward the convergence of intelligence and life itself.

・”Self-evolving semiconductors,” in which AI designs its own circuits

・Biomimetic (neuromorphic) devices

・New computing architectures based on light and quantum phenomena

・Concepts for “breathing” semiconductors linked to natural energy sources

This evolution will require not only technology, but also philosophy, purpose, and aesthetic sensibility.

・New structures, new materials, and new design approaches are underway to overcome the limits of miniaturization.

・Environmental, talent, and geopolitical risks will determine the industry’s future viability.

・Without a perspective grounded in ethics and sustainability, further progress will not be possible.

・Semiconductors are evolving into an industry that combines knowledge, technical skill, and heart.

1.What phenomenon causes the limits of miniaturization?

2.What is emerging as a new axis of competition in the semiconductor industry?

3.What perspective is needed for technology to continue evolving?

 

 

Column Supervisor: Koji Kakumoto (Otis Group Co., Ltd.)

After studying abroad and working in planning and development at a trading company, he joined Otis Group Co., Ltd. in 2011. While primarily working in the Corporate Planning Department, he has also served concurrently in manufacturing and technical divisions, and since 2018 has served as Representative Director, working to drive business growth and strengthen the organization.

 

This article is a general technical explanation intended for educational purposes and does not refer to any specific company, product, or technology.