【1】The Limits of the Scaling-Centered Model
Until now, the semiconductor industry has developed around Moore’s Law.
In other words, competition in process nodes has continued in order to achieve
・Scaling
・Higher performance
・Lower power consumption.
However, due to
・Rapidly rising manufacturing costs
・Increasing technical difficulty,
the limits of relying on scaling alone are starting to become visible.
【2】Chiplet Architecture
This is why the concept of chiplets is attracting attention.
Instead of one huge chip, this technology divides
・CPU
・GPU
・Memory
・I/O, and so on
into multiple small chips and connects them within the package.
Advantages:
・Improved yield
・Design flexibility
・Cost reduction
【3】The Importance of Advanced Packaging
In the chiplet era, packaging technology determines performance.
Key technologies:
・2.5D packaging
・3D stacking
・HBM connection
・Interposers
In other words, it is an era in which the back-end process takes the lead role.
【4】Regionally Distributed Manufacturing
Due to geopolitical risks, the concentration of manufacturing sites has become a problem.
For this reason, countries are promoting regionally distributed supply chains through
・Building fabs in the United States
・Semiconductor investment in Europe
・Bringing manufacturing back to Japan, and more.
【5】Competition in National Subsidies
Semiconductor factories are becoming national projects.
Reasons:
・Enormous investment amounts
・National security
・Industrial foundation
For this reason, countries are pouring in huge subsidies.
【6】The Foundry Ecosystem
Foundry companies are not just manufacturing companies; they are becoming the center of an ecosystem.
Example:
TSMC
・Design support
・IP partnerships
・Package integration
Close cooperation with design companies is advancing.
【7】Integration of Design and Manufacturing (DTCO)
DTCO stands for Design Technology Co-Optimization.
It is the concept of optimizing design and process at the same time.
Examples:
・Transistor structure
・Wiring design
・Power delivery design
The boundary between design and manufacturing is becoming blurred.
【8】Integration with Software
In recent years, not only hardware but also software optimization has become important.
Examples:
・AI frameworks
・Compilers
・Software optimization
Hardware-software co-design is advancing.
【9】The Expansion of Power Semiconductors
Power semiconductors are growing rapidly due to electrification.
Main materials:
・SiC
・GaN
Applications:
・EVs
・Renewable energy
・Industrial equipment
This creates a supply chain separate from that of conventional logic.
【10】A New Division-of-Labor Structure
In the next-generation semiconductor industry, a new division of labor will emerge.
Examples:
・Fabless (design)
・Foundry (manufacturing)
・OSAT (back-end process)
・Packaging companies
・Substrate companies
・Materials companies
It will become an even more complex, huge ecosystem.
【11】The Future of the Semiconductor Industry
The semiconductor industry will be driven by the following factors going forward.
・AI demand
・Electrification
・Data centers
・5G / 6G
・Autonomous driving
In other words, semiconductors will become the foundational technology of every industry.
【12】Summary
・The scaling-centered model is approaching its limits
・Chiplets are a new design approach
・The importance of advanced packaging is increasing
・The supply chain is moving toward regional distribution
・Semiconductors are a national strategic industry
Comprehension Check
1.What are the advantages of chiplet architecture?
2.Why is the importance of advanced packaging increasing?
3.Why are countries attracting semiconductor manufacturing domestically?
Column Supervisor: Koji Kakumoto (President, OTIS Co., Ltd.)
After studying abroad and working in planning and development at a trading company, he joined OTIS Co., Ltd. in 2011. While primarily working in the Corporate Planning Department, he has also served concurrently in manufacturing and technical divisions, and since 2018 has served as President, working to drive business growth and strengthen the organization.
This article is a general technical explanation intended for educational purposes and does not refer to any specific company, product, or technology.


