TECH COLUMN

8-11. The Next-Generation Supply Chain Structure

Semiconductor

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8-11. The Next-Generation Supply Chain Structure

For a long time, the semiconductor industry developed through a horizontal division-of-labor model of design → manufacturing → back-end process.
In recent years, however, due to the influence of
・AI
・data centers
・electrification
・geopolitical risks, the supply chain structure has reached a major turning point.
Going forward, the semiconductor industry will evolve not into a simple division of labor but into a new ecosystem.

【1】The Limits of the Scaling-Centered Model

Until now, the semiconductor industry has developed around Moore’s Law.

In other words, competition in process nodes has continued in order to achieve

・Scaling

・Higher performance

・Lower power consumption.

However, due to

・Rapidly rising manufacturing costs

・Increasing technical difficulty,

the limits of relying on scaling alone are starting to become visible.

【2】Chiplet Architecture

This is why the concept of chiplets is attracting attention.

Instead of one huge chip, this technology divides

・CPU

・GPU

・Memory

・I/O, and so on

into multiple small chips and connects them within the package.

Advantages:

・Improved yield

・Design flexibility

・Cost reduction

【3】The Importance of Advanced Packaging

In the chiplet era, packaging technology determines performance.

Key technologies:

・2.5D packaging

・3D stacking

・HBM connection

・Interposers

In other words, it is an era in which the back-end process takes the lead role.

【4】Regionally Distributed Manufacturing

Due to geopolitical risks, the concentration of manufacturing sites has become a problem.

For this reason, countries are promoting regionally distributed supply chains through

・Building fabs in the United States

・Semiconductor investment in Europe

・Bringing manufacturing back to Japan, and more.

【5】Competition in National Subsidies

Semiconductor factories are becoming national projects.

Reasons:

・Enormous investment amounts

・National security

・Industrial foundation

For this reason, countries are pouring in huge subsidies.

【6】The Foundry Ecosystem

Foundry companies are not just manufacturing companies; they are becoming the center of an ecosystem.

Example:

TSMC

・Design support

・IP partnerships

・Package integration

Close cooperation with design companies is advancing.

【7】Integration of Design and Manufacturing (DTCO)

DTCO stands for Design Technology Co-Optimization.

It is the concept of optimizing design and process at the same time.

Examples:

・Transistor structure

・Wiring design

・Power delivery design

The boundary between design and manufacturing is becoming blurred.

【8】Integration with Software

In recent years, not only hardware but also software optimization has become important.

Examples:

・AI frameworks

・Compilers

・Software optimization

Hardware-software co-design is advancing.

【9】The Expansion of Power Semiconductors

Power semiconductors are growing rapidly due to electrification.

Main materials:

・SiC

・GaN

Applications:

・EVs

・Renewable energy

・Industrial equipment

This creates a supply chain separate from that of conventional logic.

【10】A New Division-of-Labor Structure

In the next-generation semiconductor industry, a new division of labor will emerge.

Examples:

・Fabless (design)

・Foundry (manufacturing)

・OSAT (back-end process)

・Packaging companies

・Substrate companies

・Materials companies

It will become an even more complex, huge ecosystem.

【11】The Future of the Semiconductor Industry

The semiconductor industry will be driven by the following factors going forward.

・AI demand

・Electrification

・Data centers

・5G / 6G

・Autonomous driving

In other words, semiconductors will become the foundational technology of every industry.

【12】Summary

・The scaling-centered model is approaching its limits

・Chiplets are a new design approach

・The importance of advanced packaging is increasing

・The supply chain is moving toward regional distribution

・Semiconductors are a national strategic industry

Comprehension Check

1.What are the advantages of chiplet architecture?

2.Why is the importance of advanced packaging increasing?

3.Why are countries attracting semiconductor manufacturing domestically?

 

Column Supervisor: Koji Kakumoto (President, OTIS Co., Ltd.)

After studying abroad and working in planning and development at a trading company, he joined OTIS Co., Ltd. in 2011. While primarily working in the Corporate Planning Department, he has also served concurrently in manufacturing and technical divisions, and since 2018 has served as President, working to drive business growth and strengthen the organization.

 

This article is a general technical explanation intended for educational purposes and does not refer to any specific company, product, or technology.

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