10-1. The Birth of Moore’s Law and the History of Semiconductor Evolution

When discussing the evolution of the semiconductor industry, one concept always comes up: Moore's Law.
This is an empirical rule proposed in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel,
stating that "the number of transistors on a semiconductor chip doubles roughly every two years."
This law is not just a theory; for more than 50 years since then, it has explained the growth of the semiconductor industry almost precisely.

The evolution of semiconductors has basically been achieved through the scaling down of transistors.
The smaller transistors become, the more circuits can be placed on a chip of the same area.
As a result, computing performance has improved, power consumption has decreased, and devices have become smaller.
The performance of today's smartphones and AI computers has been achieved through the accumulation of this scaling.

【1】The History of Semiconductor Scaling

Semiconductor manufacturing technology generations are distinguished by an indicator called the process node (nm).

Semiconductors in the 1970s were at the level of several micrometers (µm), but scaling progressed rapidly after that.

Examples of typical process generations:

・1970s: 10µm to 3µm

・1990s: 500nm to 180nm

・2000s: 90nm to 45nm

・2010s: 28nm to 7nm

・Today: 5nm and 3nm generations

Today’s transistor sizes have reached the range of one tens-of-thousandth of the thickness of a human hair.

【2】Why Moore's Law Held True

Behind Moore’s Law holding true for so long were multiple technological innovations.

Main factors:

・Advances in lithography technology

・More sophisticated etching technology

・Progress in materials technology

・Optimization of circuit design

・Development of EDA (electronic design automation)

In recent years in particular, EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography has emerged and become an important technology for realizing processes of 5nm and below.

【3】What Moore's Law Has Brought

Transistor scaling has not simply increased the number of circuits.

The evolution of semiconductors has simultaneously achieved the following three things.

・Improved performance

・Reduced power consumption

・Lower cost

Because these three were achieved at the same time, computers evolved from large research facilities into smartphones that individuals carry around.

Today’s digital society, including AI, the cloud, and 5G, is also built on these improvements in semiconductor performance.

【4】The Limits of Scaling

In recent years, however, physical limits to Moore’s Law have begun to appear.

As transistors approach the atomic level, various challenges have become apparent.

Main challenges:

・Increasing leakage current

・Heat generation problems

・Rising manufacturing equipment costs

・Increasing design complexity

For example, in leading-edge processes, it is not unusual for the construction cost of a single semiconductor fab to reach the scale of 2 trillion yen.

【5】From Scaling to "System Evolution"

Against this background, the evolution of semiconductors has begun to expand in new directions beyond simple scaling.

Typical directions:

・Advanced packaging technology (2.5D / 3D)

・Chiplet structures

・HBM memory

・Dedicated accelerators (AI chips)

In other words, we are now in an era in which semiconductor performance is determined not only by transistors but by integrated technology that includes packaging, materials, and system design.

This trend has very important implications for the future of the semiconductor industry.

【6】Summary

・Moore’s Law is a fundamental concept of semiconductor evolution

・Transistor scaling has supported performance improvements

・The physical limits of scaling are now beginning to appear

・The evolution of semiconductors is expanding into packaging, materials, and systems

Comprehension Check

1.What kind of empirical rule is Moore’s Law?

2.Why does semiconductor scaling lead to improved performance?

3.Why are the limits of Moore’s Law being debated now?

Column Supervisor: Koji Kakumoto (President, OTIS Co., Ltd.)

After studying abroad and working in planning and development at a trading company, he joined OTIS Co., Ltd. in 2011. While primarily working in the Corporate Planning Department, he has also served concurrently in manufacturing and technical divisions, and since 2018 has served as President, working to drive business growth and strengthen the organization.

This article is a general technical explanation intended for educational purposes and does not refer to any specific company, product, or technology.